Medical Journal of Malaysia

MJM, Vol 70 Supplement 1 September 2015

Using AEM for Strategic Plan of Ending AIDS

Wiwat Peerapatanapokin*, Sha'ari Ngadiman**

*East-West Center, Hawaii, USA, **HIV/STI Sector, Ministry of Health, Malaysia


Introduction: HIV epidemic has been a high burden disease in many countries in Asia. To minimise HIV/AIDS impacts, the country needs to response to its epidemic effectively. This would need a clear understanding of its epidemic. Policies and programs need to be designed strategically to fit with the epidemic situation. AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) is a tool that can be used to explore the best policy options. It has been used for an investment case analysis and strategic plan of Ending AIDS in several countries

Methods: AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) has been applied in 14 countries in Asia. The AEM process consists of a series of in-country workshops: 1) data collation, analysis and trend extraction; 2) development of the preliminary baseline model; and 3) development of policy analysis scenarios; and 4) development of advocacy materials to advocate for planning and implementing the best policy options. Recently, some countries such as Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Nepal, and Malaysia have used AEM to develop an investment case for the Ending AIDS scenario.

Results: Based on a good fit between observe data and the model results, AEM have replicated the past and current HIV epidemic in most countries. Several policy scenarios have been developed and guide decision makers on policy choices. The impacts of Ending AIDS scenarios are very significant in many aspects including new infections averted, deaths averted, and DALYs saved. Ending AIDS scenario is highly cost-effective in most countries.

Conclusion: Modelling and investment case analysis might help to identify the best response to HIV epidemic. Investment of Ending AIDS should be explored. The modelling results can be used to advocate for more resources for HIV/AIDS program. 

Keywords: AEM, AIDS Epidemic Model, Policy analysis, Investment Case, Ending AIDS